Tesla said in its Q4 2019 update that “for full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units. Tesla didn’t mention if the company aims to sell 500,000 units or it hopes to sell 500k units of electric cars. Instead, it said the production volume would comfortably exceed 500k units.
It shows the confidence of Tesla, and considering its track record, Tesla does what it says. Whenever Elon Musk and Tesla say something, they mean it.
Here is an elaborate video of the equation made by the YouTube channel Solving The Money Problem.
Tesla electric car sales record
| S.no | Year | No. of vehicles sold |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2012 | 2,650 |
| 2 | 2013 | 22,477 |
| 3 | 2014 | 31,655 |
| 4 | 2015 | 50,446 |
| 5 | 2016 | 76,243 |
| 6 | 2017 | 101,250 |
| 7 | 2018 | 245,231 |
| 8 | 2019 | 367,656 |
Now, if we look at the years 2018 and 2019, then there is around a 50% growth rate. If the growth rate remains the same, then there will be around 548,484 deliveries of electric vehicles.
Apart from the estimated deliveries, there is something even more interesting for you in-store.
Tesla’s Fremont factory has a current production capacity of 90,000 units for Tesla Model S and Model X, respectively. And for Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, this capacity is 400,000 units.
Also, at the end of the table, it shows that the production capacity of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y will be increased to 500,000 units in mid-2020.
On the other hand, the Shanghai factory has an overall capacity of 150,000 units for the Model 3.
If we combine the above figures, then 400k + 90K + 150K makes around 640,000 units, and after the mid-2020, it will rise up to 500k+90K+150K, which makes a total of 740,000 units.
Although it’s the production capacity, and as we know, production capacity and sales are two different things.
Practical approach: Tesla’s electric car sales in 2020
If everything goes smoothly, then the current production capacity of electric cars by Tesla is 640,000 units. We know that due to coronavirus, the Shanghai Factory was shut down earlier in February, which affected production.
Also, the future is unpredictable, and nothing is certain in this world. Considering some unexpected events that can occur, let us assume that the production of electric vehicles will be around 550,000 units, at least.
Also, considering the pace of Tesla, it would not be a surprise if the production in the Berlin Gigafactory and production of Tesla Model Y in Shanghai starts by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, products like Tesla Roadster and Cybertruck are still under development. And we never know, these products could actually hit the market by the end of 2020 as this is a world of pace and technology, and anything is possible.
One of the commenters on YouTube said that coronavirus would affect production. Also, one month ago, the commenter said that his expectations were high regarding the numbers. However, he now believes 550k is a safe number, and it’s still higher than what Tesla claims.
Most of the commenters gave positive remarks regarding the numbers.
I will not be surprised if Tesla crosses a mark of 600,000+ deliveries for its electric vehicles in 2020.
